Trends in Renewable Energy Shares

Abstract

The global challenge of energy security amidst climate change and geopolitical tensions necessitates a transition to renewable energy sources, crucial not only for environmental preservation but also national security in hostile geopolitical contexts. This paper endeavors to forecast trends in countries' renewable energy shares relative to total energy consumption, encompassing a diverse selection based on geographical, economic, and climatic factors. Employing an ARIMA model with Fourier transformation, we elucidate autocorrelation dynamics within the system, effectively addressing structural breaks and seasonality. Our analysis reveals a consistent upward trend in renewable energy adoption post the 2000s, with GDP per capita exerting varied influences across nations. While crude oil prices negatively impact most countries, their effects are insignificant in Germany and the USA. Furthermore, all countries demonstrate substantial reliance on at least one form of renewable energy, notably hydropower in nations like the USA and Brazil. Our model exhibits a strong fit to the data, as indicated by low AIC and BIC values, white noise residuals, and uncorrelated correlograms. These findings underscore the imperative of renewable energy adoption in mitigating energy security risks and advancing sustainable development objectives.